Risk
Our changing climate presents increased threats to our UK woodlands and forests, from drought to wildfire.
Climate change is increasing the risks to UK trees, woodlands and forests with increasing temperatures and an increase in extreme weather events.
The main climate risks include wind, flooding, drought, wildfire, frost, and pests and diseases. These risks need to be assessed on a site-by-site basis in order to identify suitable adaptation measures to help build resilience.
Climate change is predicted to also bring new opportunities to the forestry sector. For example, longer growing seasons may increase tree growth, and warmer conditions may increase growth rates on sites where moisture is not limiting.
Likely changes in the UK climate
Even if there are strenuous global efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, the UK’s climate will continue to change. These changes and the risks they present could be significant, although there is uncertainty. Woodland owners and managers should assess the risks that climate change could pose, and plan adaptation accordingly.
The UK Forestry Standard (UKFS) advocates the development of a risk-based approach to adaptation and minimising the potential for negative impacts on tree growth and forest productivity using adaptation measures.
The 5-step Adaptation Framework guides managers through risk identification, management, and monitoring.
Risks and opportunities
Climate change factors
What could happen
Risk/opportunity
Carbon dioxide increase
Atmospheric CO2 concentration will continue to increase, depending on global measures to reduce emissions
Increased tree growth
Temperature increase
All UK regions are expected to warm – more in summer than in winter. The growing season will become longer.
- New species options
- Longer growing season
- Changes in pest and disease risks
Rainfall change
There may be lower summer rainfall, particularly in southern and central England. Summer rainstorms may be heavier when they do occur.
Sea level rise
Higher peak sea levels during storms; higher risk of seawater intrusion.
Flooding and waterlogging
Reduced frost and snow days
The number and severity of air frosts is expected to decline, however, their timing in relation to plant and animal cycles may change.
- Frost damage
- Increased pests and diseases
Increased storm frequency and wind speeds
Some increase in winter storms and average wind speed is expected.
See the UKFS Practice Guide
Download the UKFS Adaptation Practice Guide
Printed copies are available to purchase from Forest Research.
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Decision Support Tools
There are a range of online tools to assist managers in assessing risks to forests and woodlands and selecting appropriate adaptation measures.
